Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade is slated to launch December 3, 2025, and the crypto-sphere is buzzing. Promises of increased data throughput, lower gas fees, and enhanced Layer-2 performance are fueling renewed optimism. But, as a former data analyst, I've learned to treat hype cycles with a healthy dose of skepticism. Let's dive into the numbers and see if Fusaka can actually deliver on its promises.
The core of the Fusaka upgrade lies in its approach to data availability. PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) is designed to let Ethereum nodes verify blob data (Binary Large Objects) by sampling, rather than downloading entire blocks. This, in theory, should significantly increase rollup throughput. Currently, Ethereum can handle about six blobs per block. The goal is to scale towards 50 blobs per block in the future. A 133% increase of blobs will occur on January 7 (going from 6 to 14 blobs per block). That sounds impressive, but how will it impact the average user?
The network is also raising the block gas limit, from roughly 45 million to 150 million gas units. This increase in “computational room” per block is intended to support higher on-chain activity. But here’s the rub: Layer-2 solutions are already siphoning activity away from the main chain. As Standard Chartered pointed out, this migration is reducing fee revenue getting burned on the main chain. (The bank actually slashed its year-end ETH target due to this shift.) So, while Fusaka might technically improve mainnet capacity, the economic benefits might primarily accrue to Layer-2 providers.
Solana vs. Ethereum: ETF Flows Tell a Story
Solana Enters the Chat
The timing of the Fusaka upgrade is also crucial. Solana is nipping at Ethereum's heels, positioning itself as the blockchain of choice for speed, retail activity, and increasing institutional interest. Solana's economic loop is tighter: fees flow directly to validators and stakers, reinforcing network incentives. Ethereum's economics, on the other hand, are more fragmented, with value distributed across L2 sequencers, MEV builders, and staking providers.
Solana’s ETF rollout in late 2025 saw inflows of $476 million across 19 straight days, while Ethereum ETFs were already slowing down. (Institutions treated the dip as an entry point.) The fact that funds like Fidelity’s FSOL passed through a share of staking rewards made the ETF exposure into on-chain economic participation.
And this is the part of the analysis that I find genuinely puzzling. Ethereum still carries deep trust, but its ETF demand no longer shows new institutional conviction. Solana, for now, is capturing the narrative institutions want to own heading into 2026. The data suggests a shift in sentiment, not just a temporary blip.
Ethereum's $4K Ceiling: Bulls, Bears, and Fusaka
Bulls vs. Bears: The $4,000 Line in the Sand
Ethereum bulls point to the fact that institutional money is still flowing in, and network upgrades are landing. CoinGape recently forecasted a $5,000 target for ETH, especially if Fusaka delivers. Five-figure predictions are still floating around from credible sources. The bull case is now a matter of “when, not if” ETH eventually powers back above $4K, and keeps climbing. But the bears aren’t buying the optimism.
Can Ethereum Retest $4,000 as Investor Confidence Returns? Ethereum spot ETFs saw heavy outflows in late October as BlackRock and other major players trimmed their ETH positions. High interest rates and recession fears are still hanging over risk assets like crypto. If the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, speculative investments like ETH could keep struggling.
Ethereum reclaimed the $3,000 level in late November, signaling a return of bullish momentum. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded more than 35,000 ETH in combined net inflows during a single session, their strongest daily gain in weeks. BlackRock’s ETH fund absorbed over 31,000 ETH on its own. Expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve have also improved the risk environment, helping push ETH toward the $3,050 range and restoring confidence among traders. Is it sustainable? The data is still too noisy to tell.
Is This Just a Scalability Red Herring?
Fusaka is a technically sound upgrade, no doubt. But its impact on Ethereum's long-term dominance is far from guaranteed. The benefits may be diluted by the rise of Layer-2 solutions and the growing competition from networks like Solana. The key question is whether Fusaka can drive enough on-chain activity to offset the declining fee revenue on the main chain. My analysis suggests that the answer may depend more on broader market forces and institutional sentiment than on the technical merits of the upgrade itself.
